摘要:Latest statistics show Australia’s annualized CPI from Q4, 2019 to be 1.8%, lower than the central bank’s 2%-3% long term target range, which the inflation fails to reach ever since 2017.
Latest statistics show Australia‘s annualized CPI from Q4, 2019 to be 1.8%, lower than the central bank’s 2%-3% long term target range, which the inflation fails to reach ever since 2017.
A worrying fact is that, like the core inflation elsewhere around the globe, Australia‘s average inflation excluding items facing price volatility remains at 1.6%, and has been hovering at that level for 5 quarters, which may explain why the Australian dollar’s response to the data was lower than expected.
Moreover, the beginning of 2020 has been an awful start for the overall economy. The raging epidemic of novel coronavirus has been a hard blow on Australian dollar which is linked to economic growth. Amid a wave of risk aversion, the market is worrying about possible impact of the coronavirus epidemic on tourism and economy of the Asia Pacific region.
Global economy remains nearly stagnant in an international context full of uncertainties, while global central banks still lack efficient financial stimulus. Even if the Reserve Bank of Australian decides not to cut interest rate next month, the AUD will be hard to climb against all these adversaries. The daily average chart suggests AUD/USD has fallen to the lowest point since the end of 2019.
AUD/USD daily pivot points: 0.6754---0.6756
S1: 0.6733 R1: 0.6775
S2: 0.6713 R2: 0.6797
免责声明:
本文观点仅代表作者个人观点,不构成本平台的投资建议,本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性作出任何保证,亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任
英国于2020年1月31日正式离开欧盟,英欧双方计划随后展开谈判以达成未来关系协定。我们认为,英国“脱欧”将给欧盟带来多重负面冲击。
2019年年底的英国大选是在经济不景气的背景下举行的。最新数据显示,英国经济增长已陷入停滞,一度强劲的劳动力市场开始乏力。2020年上半年,英镑可能开始从国内经济、英国央行以及最关键的3月份预算中找到方向。此外英国脱欧协商仅处于开始阶段,能否最终达成自由贸易协定也相当关键。
我们认为加元作为去年表现最好的10国集团(G10)货币,今年将进入横盘整理态势,由于加拿大国内经济趋疲,而且近期贸易紧张情势缓和带来的提振作用减退。加元兑美元2019年上涨5%,其中约有半数涨幅是在年底的最后几周实现的,2019年末的时候各种风险大幅减弱,提振了加元和另外几种货币。
澳洲经济在2019年显示出显露疲态之势,薪资增长停滞和债务高企令消费者大幅削减支出。尽管去年澳洲联储降息三次至0.75%,但民间消费依然低迷。