摘要:I often get the question can you trade forex for a living? The short answer is yes. However, as with all prof
I often get the question can you trade forex for a living? The short answer
is yes. However, as with all professions, the key to success is effort and
experience. There is an overwhelming amount of material on the internet. There
are also lots of quick win schemes around trading on financial markets. Most of
these are scams or bogus and will end up in you losing all your money. If you
want to trade for living to keep it simple and treat it like a job.
The first step is education. This does not mean signing up for expensive
courses online. You can buy a few books about online trading for less than $40
each. I have listed a few of my favourites at the end of the article but the key
is to keep a sceptical attitude and read a few for balance. Look for books on
trading strategies as well as successful traders. Get familiar with simple
technical analysis strategies such as moving averages. Everybody is looking for
the holy grail that will give you a big win. Yet, the key to trading for a
living is “steady as she goes” and managing your money. This sounds easy but the
biggest pitfall is human psychology.
Human psychology
There is an old Wall Street saying, financial markets are driven by two
powerful emotions – greed and fear. This is as true today as it was when it was
first coined in the 19th century.
I see it over and over again where emotions cause traders to do all the wrong
things. You can be an intelligent careful person in all other respects yet still
be swept up in the emotional bubble that is trading. Dont get me wrong, trading
is an exciting and interesting activity. It can connect you to the global world
in the way little else can. Yet if you want to trade for a living, we want to
reverse your natural instincts and manage your emotions.
The successful traders take emotions out of their trading decisions. This
means planning the largest amount you are happy to lose on each trade. Once you
have this amount, set a stop order and limit order at the same time as opening
your position. The famous American investor Warren Buffet once said, Be fearful
when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. This is a great
mantra to follow when you are trading.
But I hear you say I need a trading strategy that wins. Yes, you need a
strategy but even if you only get your trade right 5 times out of 10 you can
make money if you manage your money. The key is making sure you minimise the
loss on the losing trades and maximising the gain on the winning trades. That is
where human psychology becomes your enemy.
Fighting your demons
The tendency will be to close winning trades as soon as you have one. This
makes sense, right? Lock in your profit before the market turns? No, we need the
winners to compensate for the losers so keep tracking up until the market turns
and then sell.
The other tendency is to let losing trades ride. You might say to yourself it
will turn around. After all, I spent time deciding on this trade and I am now
invested, psychologists call this cognitive bias. Unfortunately, it might but
it is as likely to go against you and you increase your losses. Do you have
enough capital to keep holding this position? Remember when trading CFDs you pay
swap every night for the privilege. This is a tiny amount and most times you can
ignore it. But if you hold your position long enough this becomes a problem.
When you have emotionally invested in taking a trading position It can be
hard to admit it was wrong. The key is to set your largest loss before you open
your position. Put in a stop order at that level and then walk away from it.
For winning traders use trailing limit order if your trading platform allows
that. This means that you lock in profits but let the position ride until it
starts to come back. You wont get the highest price but you can extract a good
return.
Getting started
Trading Forex or CFDs is not a “get rich quick scheme”, no matter what you
might see on the internet. If you want to make a living trading, then treat it
like a job. That means learning how to trade and practising with real money.
Educate yourself - read about successful traders and trading technique
Find a strategy – make sure you are comfortable with it and practice
trading
Develop a money management plan – this is key to long term success and always
stick to it
Say you wanted to be a skier? Would you expect to strap on some skies, go to
the top of the mountain, do some jumps and come to beautiful hockey stop at the
bottom? No, you would expect to start on the lower slope, fall down a lot and
spend a lot of time practising. A teacher or mentor helps as learning from
others is a great way to get ahead. But you still need a lot of practice and
discipline. Trading is exactly the same.
Once you have a feel for trading, and you still enjoy it, then comes the time
to start. You will need:
Capital - depending on your desired income to go full time you should have
about $50k of capital to start.
Discipline – you have your money management plan. you put in stops to limit
you greatest loss on every trade. Each trade uses less than 5% of your capital.
Some of the more seasoned traders even have this as low as 1% of your capital.
That might seem a tiny amount, but we are dealing with a leveraged product.
Realistic expectations – If you can get a 30% return over a year on your
capital you are doing well. This is a process of grinding it out, not the big
wins. You might get some big wins on the way but thats a whole new
psychological challenge.
Good traders
The most successful traders I know trade almost like robots. They dont let
their emotion come into their trading decisions. They are disciplined in their
planning and execution. Emotions are your enemy in trading and quick win gut
feel traders rarely last the distance.
A big win is great, but it has its own problem. You can become overconfident
and start over-trading and taking an ever-increasing risk. Rudyard Kipling in
his famous poem If say
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
That is a good way to think about big wins and helps you manage your emotions
about losses.
Advantages and disadvantages
Trading can be an exciting and interesting activity and there are a lot of
advantages:
You are your own boss; you dont have to report to anybody
You can trade from anywhere as long as you have a good internet connection.
Fancy living by the beach in the sunshine, no problem
You set your own schedule, markets trade 24 hours a day if you prefer to
trade in the morning or the evening you decide. You can work around your day
You dont have to manage any people or rely on anybody outside yourself
You dont need much time. If you have a good plan, all you need is an hour or
two per day to scan the markets. Once you have your trading opportunities and
set and forget them.
Put your money where your mouth is. There is nothing more satisfying than
showing people you were right by actually taking a trade and making money from
it.
As with all activities, there are also some disadvantages.
Like any activity, trading takes time and effort and educatio
It helps if you enjoy the markets. Most traders are news junkies and trading
connects you to the world in a way no other activity ca
There is a no quick win, if you want to make a living from trading you have
to treat it like a job, slow steady returns over time. Try to get 6 out of every
10 trades to make a profit and have a percentage return target for the year.
It can be very lonely. The last point might seem trivial but is the one that
affects most traders the most in the long term. You might be the only person you
know who trades for a living. There is no need to talk to anybody when trading
its you and the market. Keep in contact with your family and friends. Make sure
you balance your trading with other social activities in life.
The pitfalls to avoid
Losing all your capital. Financial regulations in Europe require brokers to
provide the “percentage of people that lose money” trading on their web site.
You often find these in the disclaimer section, here is a typical example from a
UK based broker:
This brokers in its disclaimer say that 75% of retail investors lose money
when trading. Why is this the case when if traders had no system and traded at
random you would expect that to be 50%? This is the psychology of trading. The
emotions make people do the opposite of what they should, and this is the
result. Controlling your trading is a key to be in the 25% of traders that make
money.
Use a reputable broker. There are hundreds of brokers in the world. Many
operate with no regulation, operate from tax havens or are scams. Do your due
diligence. Find a broker based in a reputable country that holds a proper
license. Avoid slick web sites and give away offers. The old saying if it is too
good to be true then it probably is never truer than with brokers. The licensed
brokers have a lot of regulations they must meet. When dealing with a regulated
broker the account opening process will be more complex. This is because they
have to meet regulations and means that they are following the rules which are a
good sign. Be sceptical when deciding who to entrust your money. Things to ask
include
a) do they keep your funds secure
b) do they hedge with a reputable liquidity provider themselve
c) have they got enough capital to make sure they can payout when you wi
d) are they really regulated by a financial regulator that monitors their
activity?
Last thoughts
Trading like any activity has its positives and negatives. It is possible to
make a living trading CFDs, but you need to treat it like a job. Educate
yourself, set realistic goals, select a good broker and manage your instincts.
It can be a great way to make a living particularly if you enjoy the financial
markets. Perhaps you are a news junkie and love to know about the world. Even
better if you have contrarian views but be aware of the loneliness of
trading.
Trading for a living is a game of turtles do not hare. Are you a turtle?
Booklist
The complete turtle trader, by Michael Covel – fascinating story how 23
Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires learning to trade.
Market Wizards by Jack Schwager – Interviews with top traders that gives a
great insight into trading psychology
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre – written back in 1923 as
a first-person by a character inspired by the life of stock trader Jesse
Livermore. Still a great read and still relevant today.
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading
Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance) by John Murphy – great
reference for the concepts of technical analysis.
Technical Analysis for Dummies by Barbara Rockefeller – good way to
understand simple technical strategies like moving average
CFDs Made Simple: A Beginner's Guide to Contracts for Difference Success by
Jeff Cartridge(Author), Ashley Jessen (Author) – great beginners book trading
CFDs co-written by an Ashley Jessen an old colleague of mine.
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient
Investment Techniques of the Far East, Second Edition, by Steve Nison –
understanding how to use candlestick chart
Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street by Michael Lewis –
great story about trading in general, a must-read for all budding trader
Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco – not directly related to
trading but a great story about financial markets in the 80
The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis – about
contrarian traders during the GFC, was turned into a movie but still a great
story.
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